“How should Hong Kong’s development plan for the next 30 years be made?” Many Hong Kong people may have given this question some thought. But it is not easy to give a concrete answer to this complicated question. For one thing, people have diverse aspirations; for another, the objective circumstances of our community, and the regional and global environments, are ever changing. The last review on territorial development strategy, entitled “Hong Kong 2030: Planning Vision and Strategy”, was completed and promulgated eight years ago in 2007. Early this year, it was announced in the Policy Address that a study, “Hong Kong 2030+: Towards a Planning Vision and Strategy Transcending 2030” (Hong Kong 2030+), would be conducted to review the latest circumstances from various aspects and to update the territorial development strategy of Hong Kong.
According to the latest Hong Kong population projections announced by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) last Friday, the growth of Hong Kong’s population and number of households will slow down, yet an overall increasing trend is still foreseeable 20 to 30 years into the future. Hong Kong’s population is projected to increase from 7.24 million in 2014 to 8.22 million in 2043 (i.e. a growth of almost one million people), representing an increase of about 14 per cent. At the same time, as the average household size is decreasing continuously, the increase in households will be faster than the increase in population. The number of households is projected to increase from 2.43 million in 2014 to 2.93 million in 2044, representing a growth of about 20 per cent or 500,000 households. Such an increase will be equivalent to 3.5 times the number of households in Shatin New Town.
However, even though the growth of population and number of households is slowing down, it does not mean that we will slow down or even bring a halt to our work of land planning. As a responsible government, in formulating the territorial development strategy for Hong Kong, apart from making reference to our future population and household projections, we also have to take a holistic approach, considering various factors of social and economic development, as well as the challenges that Hong Kong may face in its long-term development.
Let’s take Hong Kong’s spatial development as an example. At present, most of Hong Kong’s seven million people or so are concentrated in built-up areas which account for about 24 per cent (around 267 square kilometres) of the total land area of Hong Kong. Should you happen to talk to friends from neighbouring cities about housing, you will notice almost instantly that the existing average living space per person in Hong Kong is far less than that of other cities and regions. This is in stark contrast to our level of social and economic development. Would you like to see our next generation living under the same circumstances 30 years later? For example, to increase Hong Kong’s average living space per person by only one square metre, roughly 10 million square metres of additional residential land (assuming a saleable area of about 70 to 80 per cent) would be needed. That would be as big as about 10 Taikoo Shings. Does our community have the determination and courage to make it our vision to improve the living space for the future generation?
In addition, it is clearly shown in the C&SD’s population projections that in the coming 30 years, Hong Kong will face great challenges in various social and economic areas due to the rapid change in the demographic structure of our population. With our ageing population, our elderly’s demand for hospitals, elderly homes and various buildings and community facilities that support and facilitate “ageing in place” will only rise. Land and space is needed to develop such facilities. As far as economic development is concerned, with a diminishing labour force in future, we will need to increase land supply to facilitate the development of an innovative and knowledge-based economy to enhance productivity and sustain Hong Kong’s economic competitiveness.
Furthermore, the work of planning and land development usually takes more than 10 years; therefore, we should be far-sighted and make early preparations. A more pragmatic approach is to keep reviewing our strategy against the latest situation of the Hong Kong population and our social and economic growth to draw up a robust, coherent and flexible long-term development strategy that allows for due adjustments in the timetable and progress of various land development projects. In any event, our work on land planning and development cannot afford to be halted again; otherwise, we will only face the same old problems in the future.
It is indeed a challenging task to formulate Hong Kong’s development strategy for the next 30 years. We do not underestimate the difficulties. However, I believe that when our community as a whole bears in mind the interests of our next generation and takes a pragmatic approach to resolve problems, we will find a development direction that can balance the needs of social and economic development, as well as environmental conservation. Once the “Hong Kong 2030+” has made further progress, we will definitely engage the public in our discussions to plan for the future of Hong Kong.
27 September, 2015
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